Stade de Marrakech · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Equatorial Guinea vs Comoros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Equatorial Guinea and 0.75 for Comoros, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Equatorial Guinea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Equatorial Guinea win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Equatorial Guinea home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Comoros away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Equatorial Guinea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Equatorial Guinea and 0.75 for Comoros, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.8%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.9%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Equatorial Guinea
- 2026-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sierra Leone · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-09T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Comoros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Madagascar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyrgyzstan · 1-0 (W)
Comoros
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Namibia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cameroon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Equatorial Guinea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U23 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kazakhstan · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Equatorial Guinea win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.