Equity Bank vs Kisumu All Stars Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Equity Bank and 0.50 for Kisumu All Stars, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Equity Bank the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Equity Bank win

70.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Equity Bank home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kisumu All Stars away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Equity Bank to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 20% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Equity Bank and 0.50 for Kisumu All Stars, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Equity Bank win71%

Draw20%

Kisumu All Stars win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score33%

Correct score

1–017.4%
2–016.4%
3–010.2%
0–09.3%
1–18.7%

Recent form

Equity Bank

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mwatate United · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Migori Youth · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Soy United · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortune Sacco · 4-0 (W)
2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs 3K · 0-0 (D)

Kisumu All Stars

2026-06-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Vihiga United FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Darajani Gogo · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Migori Youth · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Soy United · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MOFA · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Super League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Equity Bank win, at 70.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.