· Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Erandio vs Amurrio Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Erandio and 0.73 for Amurrio Club, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Erandio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Erandio win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Erandio home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Amurrio Club away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erandio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 24% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Erandio and 0.73 for Amurrio Club, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.2%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Erandio
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Touring · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sodupe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés III · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurrerá Vitoria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Amurrio Club · 2-0 (W)
Amurrio Club
- 2026-10-25T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Santurtzi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs San Ignacio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad III · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Leioa · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Erandio · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leioa | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 16 |
| 2 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Derio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | San Ignacio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Touring | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Aretxabaleta | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Durango | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad III | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Eibar III | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Beasain | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | Sodupe | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13 | Pasaia KE | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Santurtzi | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lagun Onak | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Erandio | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Erandio win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.