· Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
Erandio vs R. Union B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Erandio and 1.03 for R. Union B, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Erandio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Erandio win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erandio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Erandio and 1.03 for R. Union B, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 49% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–18.0%
Recent form
Erandio
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Aurrerá Vitoria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Amurrio Club · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eibar III · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs R. Union B · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Pasaia KE · 2-0 (W)
R. Union B
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Erandio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sodupe · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Aretxabaleta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Leioa | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 4 | Derio | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Deportivo Alavés III | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | San Ignacio | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Touring | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad III | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Sodupe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 10 | Beasain | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 | Durango | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 | Pasaia KE | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Lagun Onak | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Erandio | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Santurtzi | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | R. Union B | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Erandio win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.