Erbil vs Al Kahrabaa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Erbil and 0.45 for Al Kahrabaa, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Erbil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Erbil win

60.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Erbil home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Kahrabaa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erbil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 28% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Erbil and 0.45 for Al Kahrabaa, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Erbil win60%

Draw28%

Al Kahrabaa win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals55%

Over 2.5 goals28%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

1–022.2%
0–016.0%
2–015.3%
1–19.9%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Erbil

2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Karbala · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Karma · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Diyala · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shorta · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Minaa Basra · 2-0 (W)

Al Kahrabaa

2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Talaba · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Karbala · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Shorta · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Minaa Basra · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Zawra'a · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Iraqi League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Karma	10	7	3	0	10	24
2	Newroz	10	6	3	1	12	21
3	Naft	10	6	3	1	8	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	8	18
5	Erbil	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Al Shorta	10	4	5	1	5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	1	14
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	2	12
9	Duhok	10	2	6	2	1	12
10	Diyala	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
13	Al Talaba	10	2	5	3	-4	11
14	Mosul	10	3	2	5	-5	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	-7	9
16	Gharraf	10	2	3	5	-7	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	-3	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	-5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	-7	8
20	Karbala	10	1	3	6	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Erbil win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.