Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Erbil and 0.72 for Al Minaa Basra, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Erbil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Erbil win

54.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Erbil home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Minaa Basra away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erbil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 27% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Erbil and 0.72 for Al Minaa Basra, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Erbil win54%

Draw27%

Al Minaa Basra win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.7%
2–012.0%
1–111.9%
0–011.6%
2–18.6%

Recent form

Erbil

2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Karbala · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Karma · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Diyala · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shorta · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Minaa Basra · 2-0 (W)

Al Minaa Basra

2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Duhok · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kahrabaa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Naft Maysan · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Naft · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Erbil · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Iraqi League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Karma	11	7	3	1	9	24
2	Newroz	11	6	4	1	12	22
3	Naft	11	6	4	1	8	22
4	Al Shorta	11	5	5	1	7	20
5	Erbil	11	5	3	3	7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	5	3	3	6	18
7	Al-Jolan SC	11	4	5	2	2	17
8	Duhok	11	3	6	2	4	15
9	Al Minaa Basra	11	4	3	4	-1	15
10	Al Talaba	11	3	5	3	-3	14
11	Diyala	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	2	6	3	1	12
13	Mosul	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Zakho	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
16	Gharraf	11	2	4	5	-7	10
17	Al Karkh	11	2	3	6	-5	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	1	5	5	-6	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	-7	8
20	Karbala	11	1	3	7	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Erbil win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.