· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Erchim vs Central Stallions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Erchim and 3.95 for Central Stallions, a combined total of 4.93. That distribution gives Central Stallions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Central Stallions win
87.4% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 3.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Central Stallions away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Central Stallions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 5% / 8% / 87% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Erchim and 3.95 for Central Stallions, a combined 4.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 60%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
13%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–37.5%
- 0–47.4%
- 1–37.3%
- 1–47.2%
- 0–55.8%
Recent form
Erchim
Central Stallions
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulaangom City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Khovd · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hunters · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amtat FC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Tainan City · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulaanbaatar | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 25 |
| 2 | Central Stallions | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Deren | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Hunters | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Khovd | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Erchim | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 9 |
| 7 | Amtat FC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 9 |
| 8 | Khovd Western | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -23 | 6 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -24 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Central Stallions win, at 87.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.