· Analysis updated 12:03 UTC
Erchim vs Khovd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Erchim and 3.48 for Khovd, a combined total of 5.90. That distribution gives Khovd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Khovd win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 3.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Khovd away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Khovd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 26% / 16% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Erchim and 3.48 for Khovd, a combined 5.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 92% and both teams to score at 87%, with 2–3 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–35.6%
- 2–44.9%
- 2–24.9%
- 1–34.7%
- 3–34.5%
Recent form
Erchim
Khovd
- 2026-09-21T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Stallions · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Khovd Western · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Khoromkhon · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-06-28T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulaangom City · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-06-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Hunters · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulaanbaatar | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 25 |
| 2 | Central Stallions | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Deren | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Hunters | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Khovd | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Erchim | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 9 |
| 7 | Amtat FC | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 9 |
| 8 | Khovd Western | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -23 | 6 |
| 9 | Ulaangom City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -24 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Khovd win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.