· Analysis updated 01:49 UTC
Érdi VSE vs Dunaharaszti MTK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Érdi VSE and 2.01 for Dunaharaszti MTK, a combined total of 4.17. That distribution gives Érdi VSE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.9% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Érdi VSE home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dunaharaszti MTK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Érdi VSE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 20% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Érdi VSE and 2.01 for Dunaharaszti MTK, a combined 4.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–26.7%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–25.2%
Recent form
Érdi VSE
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Budafoki LC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs PTE-PEAC · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs MTK Budapest II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaposvar · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
Dunaharaszti MTK
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kaposvar · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ikarus BSE · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Érdi VSE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Majosi · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 37 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Iváncsa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Majosi | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Siofok | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | PTE-PEAC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -19 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -41 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.