Érdi VSE vs Iváncsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Érdi VSE and 1.76 for Iváncsa, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Érdi VSE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Érdi VSE win

47.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.14 – 1.76

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Érdi VSE home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iváncsa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Érdi VSE win47%

Draw21%

Iváncsa win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.2%
1–17.6%
2–27.2%
1–26.7%
3–15.8%

Recent form

Érdi VSE

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pécsi MFC · 1-2 (L)

Iváncsa

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Érdi VSE · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencváros II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged 2011 · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Majosi · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pécsi MFC · 0-7 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Érdi VSE 1-4 Iváncsa (NB III - Southwest)
2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · Érdi VSE 0-3 Iváncsa (Magyar Kupa)
2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · Érdi VSE 2-1 Iváncsa (NB III - Southwest)
2025-10-05T11:00:00.000Z · Érdi VSE 1-1 Iváncsa (NB III - Southwest)
2024-05-05T15:00:00.000Z · Érdi VSE 0-1 Iváncsa (NB III - Southwest)
2023-10-22T11:00:00.000Z · Érdi VSE 0-3 Iváncsa (NB III - Southwest)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Érdi VSE win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.