· Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Érdi VSE vs Sárbogárd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Érdi VSE and 1.13 for Sárbogárd, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Érdi VSE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Érdi VSE win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Érdi VSE home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sárbogárd away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Érdi VSE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 20% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Érdi VSE and 1.13 for Sárbogárd, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Érdi VSE
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Majosi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Pécsi MFC · 1-2 (L)
Sárbogárd
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaposvar · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Budaörs · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 34 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Iváncsa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Majosi | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | PTE-PEAC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Érdi VSE | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Siofok | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -40 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Érdi VSE win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.