Erkenschwick vs ASC Dortmund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Erkenschwick and 2.05 for ASC Dortmund, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives ASC Dortmund the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

61.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 2.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Erkenschwick home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ASC Dortmund away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ASC Dortmund to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 39% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Erkenschwick and 2.05 for ASC Dortmund, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Erkenschwick win39%

Draw21%

ASC Dortmund win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.3%
2–27.3%
1–17.1%
2–17.1%
1–35.0%

Recent form

Erkenschwick

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ASC Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hiltrup · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl II · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arminia II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Victoria Clarholz · 3-2 (W)

ASC Dortmund

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Erkenschwick · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schermbeck · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gievenbeck · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ennepetal · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs TuS Hordel · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Westfalen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gievenbeck	11	7	2	2	8	23
2	Vreden	11	7	2	2	7	23
3	Maaslingen	11	7	1	3	7	22
4	Eintracht Rheine	11	6	2	3	7	20
5	Lippstadt 08	12	6	2	4	2	20
6	ASC Dortmund	11	6	1	4	6	19
7	Sprockhovel	11	5	3	3	9	18
8	Arminia II	11	5	3	3	5	18
9	Erkenschwick	11	5	3	3	4	18
10	Preußen Münster II	11	4	3	4	2	15
11	Westfalia Kinderhaus	11	4	3	4	-3	15
12	Verl II	11	4	2	5	1	14
13	Hiltrup	11	4	1	6	-9	13
14	SpVgg Herne Horsthausen	11	4	0	7	-7	12
15	TuS Hordel	11	2	5	4	-4	11
16	Victoria Clarholz	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Ennepetal	11	1	5	5	-12	8
18	Schermbeck	12	0	2	10	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.