· Analysis updated 15:03 UTC
Ermis Exochi vs Iraklis Larissa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.93 expected goals for Ermis Exochi and 0.84 for Iraklis Larissa, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives Ermis Exochi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ermis Exochi win
79.7% probability
Expected goals
2.93 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ermis Exochi home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iraklis Larissa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ermis Exochi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.93 goals for Ermis Exochi and 0.84 for Iraklis Larissa, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.9%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.1%
- 4–07.1%
Recent form
Ermis Exochi
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis Larissa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Feraios · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elassona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anthoupoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Alexandreia · 1-0 (W)
Iraklis Larissa
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis Exochi · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trikala · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pierikos · 1-3 (L)
- 2023-06-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veria · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthoupoli | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Trikala | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Ermis Exochi | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Elassona | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Pierikos | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Karitsa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Feraios | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Sarakinos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | Digenis Neochori | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 11 | Iraklis Larissa | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ermis Exochi win, at 79.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.