Ammochostos Stadium · Analysis updated 13:30 UTC
Ermis vs Akritas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Ermis and 0.84 for Akritas, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Ermis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ermis win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ermis home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Akritas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ermis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Ermis and 0.84 for Akritas, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.3%
Recent form
Ermis
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Polemidion · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nea Salamis · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PAEEK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Akritas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kedros Agia Marina · 1-1 (D)
Akritas
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs ASIL Lysi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ermis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Enosis · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AEL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Aradippou · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethnikos Achna | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 2 | ASIL Lysi | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Enosis | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Doxa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | PAEEK | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ermis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | APEA | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Spartakos Kitiou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Digenis Morphou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Iraklis Yerolakkou | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Polemidion | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 12 | Ayia Napa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Halkanoras | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Akritas | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | MEAP Nisou | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ermis win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.