· Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Ermis vs Anorthosis Mouttagiakas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.36 expected goals for Ermis and 0.87 for Anorthosis Mouttagiakas, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Ermis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ermis win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
2.36 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ermis home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Anorthosis Mouttagiakas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ermis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.36 goals for Ermis and 0.87 for Anorthosis Mouttagiakas, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.3%
- 3–08.6%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Ermis
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PAEEK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Akritas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kedros Agia Marina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Assias · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs ASPIS · 1-0 (W)
Anorthosis Mouttagiakas
- 2026-04-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Anagennisi Deryneia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs ASPIS · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs AEN · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kedros Agia Marina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-21T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Assias · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 30 | 36 |
| 2 | AEP Polemidion | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | Ermis | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 23 | 33 |
| 4 | Ethnikos Assias | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Kedros Agia Marina | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 26 |
| 6 | AEN | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 23 |
| 7 | Anorthosis Mouttagiakas | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | ASPIS | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 22 |
| 9 | Ormideia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Othellos | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 17 |
| 11 | Leivadia | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -6 | 15 |
| 12 | EN THOI Lakatamia | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Atlas Aglantzi | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 14 |
| 14 | Omonia Psevda | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 | Kouris Erimi | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -13 | 9 |
| 16 | APONA Anagias | 15 | 0 | 0 | 15 | -41 | 0 |
| 1 | Anagennisi Deryneia | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 67 |
| 2 | Ethnikos Assias | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 55 |
| 3 | Kedros Agia Marina | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 52 |
| 4 | AEP Polemidion | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 61 |
| 5 | Ermis | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 57 |
| 6 | Anorthosis Mouttagiakas | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 37 |
| 7 | ASPIS | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -26 | 5 |
| 8 | AEN | 14 | 0 | 2 | 12 | -35 | 2 |
| 1 | Leivadia | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 40 |
| 2 | Kouris Erimi | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | Ormideia | 14 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | EN THOI Lakatamia | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 38 |
| 5 | Othellos | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Omonia Psevda | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 37 |
| 7 | Atlas Aglantzi | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 8 | APONA Anagias | 14 | 1 | 0 | 13 | -48 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ermis win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.