Erzgebirgsstadion · Analysis updated 00:41 UTC
Erzgebirge Aue U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Erzgebirge Aue U19 and 2.07 for Carl Zeiss Jena U19, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Carl Zeiss Jena U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 2.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carl Zeiss Jena U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Erzgebirge Aue U19 and 2.07 for Carl Zeiss Jena U19, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–26.8%
- 0–16.6%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Erzgebirge Aue U19
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin U19 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Babelsberg U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC U19 · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Carl Zeiss Jena U19 win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.