Erzgebirgsstadion · Analysis updated 05:06 UTC
Erzgebirge Aue U19 vs Greuther Fürth U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Erzgebirge Aue U19 and 2.10 for Greuther Fürth U19, a combined total of 3.86. That distribution gives Greuther Fürth U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Greuther Fürth U19 win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Erzgebirge Aue U19 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Greuther Fürth U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Greuther Fürth U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 33% / 21% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Erzgebirge Aue U19 and 2.10 for Greuther Fürth U19, a combined 3.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.9%
- 1–35.7%
Recent form
Erzgebirge Aue U19
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 2-7 (L)
Greuther Fürth U19
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Greuther Fürth U19 win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.