Erzgebirgsstadion · Analysis updated 04:18 UTC
Erzgebirge Aue U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Erzgebirge Aue U19 and 2.83 for RB Leipzig U19, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives RB Leipzig U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
RB Leipzig U19 win
73.5% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Erzgebirge Aue U19 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Leipzig U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 12% / 15% / 74% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Erzgebirge Aue U19 and 2.83 for RB Leipzig U19, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.7%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–37.6%
- 1–16.1%
Recent form
Erzgebirge Aue U19
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankf U19 · 2-7 (L)
RB Leipzig U19
- 2026-08-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue U19 · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Fürth U19 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Dresden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T12:05:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig U19 win, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.