Erzgebirgsstadion · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
Erzgebirge Aue vs Hallescher FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.25 for Hallescher FC, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Hallescher FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Erzgebirge Aue home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hallescher FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hallescher FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.25 for Hallescher FC, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.3%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Erzgebirge Aue
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greifswalder FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-2 (D)
Hallescher FC
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tasmania Berlin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 31 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Altglienicke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | BFC Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Erzgebirge Aue | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Magdeburg II | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | BFC Preussen | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | Tasmania Berlin | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
| 16 | Hertha BSC II | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 17 | RSV Eintracht | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.