Erzgebirge Aue vs Hertha BSC II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.58 for Hertha BSC II, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Erzgebirge Aue the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Erzgebirge Aue win

55.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.38 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Erzgebirge Aue home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erzgebirge Aue to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 19% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.58 for Hertha BSC II, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Erzgebirge Aue win56%

Draw19%

Hertha BSC II win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.6%
1–17.2%
3–16.8%
2–26.7%
1–25.7%

Recent form

Erzgebirge Aue

2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greifswalder FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg II · 2-1 (W)

Hertha BSC II

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Zwickau · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	9	4	1	24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	9	3	2	21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	6	4	4	5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	-18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Erzgebirge Aue win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.