Erzgebirge Aue vs Luckenwalde Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.10 for Luckenwalde, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Erzgebirge Aue the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Erzgebirge Aue win

56.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Erzgebirge Aue home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Luckenwalde away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erzgebirge Aue to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.10 for Luckenwalde, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Erzgebirge Aue win57%

Draw22%

Luckenwalde win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.9%
1–09.3%
2–09.0%
3–16.4%

Recent form

Erzgebirge Aue

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greifswalder FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-2 (D)

Luckenwalde

2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Luckenwalde (Regionalliga - Nordost)

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	9	4	1	24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	9	3	2	21	30
3	Hallescher FC	14	8	5	1	11	29
4	Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	6	4	4	5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	14	4	6	4	0	18
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	BSG Chemie Leipzig	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
15	Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	-18	11
16	Hertha BSC II	14	2	4	8	-15	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Erzgebirge Aue win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.