Erzgebirge Aue vs SV Babelsberg 03 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.18 for SV Babelsberg 03, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Erzgebirge Aue the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Erzgebirge Aue win

54.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.91 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Erzgebirge Aue home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Babelsberg 03 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erzgebirge Aue to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.18 for SV Babelsberg 03, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Erzgebirge Aue win54%

Draw22%

SV Babelsberg 03 win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.8%
1–08.7%
2–08.3%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Erzgebirge Aue

2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 0-0 (D)

SV Babelsberg 03

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	11	8	3	0	25	27
2	Chemnitzer FC	11	8	2	1	20	26
3	BFC Dynamo	12	7	3	2	9	24
4	Hallescher FC	11	6	4	1	9	22
5	Altglienicke	12	6	3	3	5	21
6	Erzgebirge Aue	11	6	3	2	4	21
7	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	11	6	1	4	9	19
8	Greifswalder FC	11	5	4	2	7	19
9	FSV Zwickau	12	5	3	4	-2	18
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Magdeburg II	11	4	1	6	-3	13
12	SV Babelsberg 03	11	3	3	5	-3	12
13	BFC Preussen	11	2	4	5	-3	10
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	2	3	7	-7	9
15	Hertha BSC II	11	2	3	6	-12	9
16	RSV Eintracht	11	1	3	7	-16	6
17	Luckenwalde	12	2	0	10	-17	6
18	Tasmania Berlin	12	1	2	9	-25	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Erzgebirge Aue win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.