Kazim Karabekir Stadyumu · Referee Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy, Türkiye · Analysis updated 14:44 UTC
Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.60 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Samsunspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Samsunspor win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Erzurumspor FK home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Samsunspor away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Samsunspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 21% / 25% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.60 for Samsunspor, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–210.5%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Erzurumspor FK
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Alanyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Samsunspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 1-0 (W)
Samsunspor
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amed · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 16 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 16 |
| 5 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 14 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -21 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Samsunspor win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.