· Analysis updated 07:14 UTC
ES Agboville vs AFAD Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for ES Agboville and 1.10 for AFAD, a combined total of 1.97. That distribution gives AFAD the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.3% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ES Agboville home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFAD away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFAD to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 29% / 31% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for ES Agboville and 1.10 for AFAD, a combined 1.97 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.3%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
ES Agboville
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Korhogo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · H vs US Tchologo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ISCA · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mouna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing d'Abidjan · 1-0 (W)
AFAD
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ASEC Mimosas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SOA · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Bouaké · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs East End Lions · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yamoussoukro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | SOA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Zoman | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | ES Agboville | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | San-Pédro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | SOL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Stade d'Abidjan | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | ISCA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Bouaké | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 10 | Korhogo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | AFAD | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 12 | Stella | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | ASEC Mimosas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | US Tchologo | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Mouna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Adiake | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.