Stade Municipal Bou Ali-Lahouar · Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
ES Hammam-Sousse vs Stade Tunisien Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for ES Hammam-Sousse and 1.48 for Stade Tunisien, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Stade Tunisien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Tunisien win
54.7% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ES Hammam-Sousse home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Tunisien away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stade Tunisien to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 19% / 27% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for ES Hammam-Sousse and 1.48 for Stade Tunisien, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–211.8%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–28.8%
Recent form
ES Hammam-Sousse
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Metlaoui · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 0-0 (D)
Stade Tunisien
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Gabes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Ben Guerdane · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | US Ben Guerdane | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Monastir | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | CA Bizertin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Stade Tunisien | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | AS Marsa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | ES Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Olympique Béja | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Tunisien win, at 54.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.