Bou Ali Lahouar Stadium · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for ES Hammam-Sousse and 1.80 for US Ben Guerdane, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives US Ben Guerdane the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
US Ben Guerdane win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ES Hammam-Sousse home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
US Ben Guerdane away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates US Ben Guerdane to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 20% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for ES Hammam-Sousse and 1.80 for US Ben Guerdane, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.2%
Recent form
ES Hammam-Sousse
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Bizertin · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs US Ben Guerdane · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Metlaoui · 0-1 (L)
US Ben Guerdane
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Hammam-Lif · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Béja · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Tunis · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | US Monastirienne | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Bizertin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is US Ben Guerdane win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.