Metlaoui Municipal stadium · Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
ES Metlaoui vs AS Gabes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for ES Metlaoui and 0.84 for AS Gabes, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives ES Metlaoui the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ES Metlaoui win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ES Metlaoui home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Gabes away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ES Metlaoui to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for ES Metlaoui and 0.84 for AS Gabes, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.8%
- 2–010.4%
- 0–19.0%
Recent form
ES Metlaoui
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Tunis · 1-3 (L)
AS Gabes
- 2026-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Soliman · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs JS Kairouanaise · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ES Metlaoui win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.