Metlaoui Municipal stadium · Analysis updated 05:24 UTC
ES Metlaoui vs JS Kairouanaise Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for ES Metlaoui and 0.58 for JS Kairouanaise, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives ES Metlaoui the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
78.6% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 0.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ES Metlaoui home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
JS Kairouanaise away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.8%
- 1–020.7%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
ES Metlaoui
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Marsa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-2 (L)
JS Kairouanaise
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalaâ Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jendouba Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Metlaoui · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Gabes · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-0 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-22T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 1-0 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
- 2021-05-25T14:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-0 JS Kairouanaise (Cup)
- 2021-03-10T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 1-1 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
- 2020-12-27T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 2-0 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
- 2020-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 2-0 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
- 2019-11-24T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-1 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
- 2019-05-18T14:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-0 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
- 2018-11-28T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 1-0 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
- 2018-01-21T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-0 JS Kairouanaise (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Monastir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Bizertin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.