Metlaoui Municipal stadium · Analysis updated 23:27 UTC
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for ES Metlaoui and 1.41 for Stade Tunisien, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Stade Tunisien the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Stade Tunisien win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ES Metlaoui home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Tunisien away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.1%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–08.9%
Recent form
ES Metlaoui
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Tunis · 1-3 (L)
Stade Tunisien
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs US Ben Guerdane · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Metlaoui · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Sfaxien · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 1-2 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
- 2026-02-01T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-0 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
- 2025-08-27T15:30:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-2 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-01T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-0 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
- 2024-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-1 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
- 2023-05-27T15:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 2-1 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
- 2023-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 1-1 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
- 2023-02-26T12:30:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 1-2 Stade Tunisien (Cup)
- 2021-03-31T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 1-0 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
- 2021-01-12T13:00:00.000Z · ES Metlaoui 0-0 Stade Tunisien (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Monastir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Bizertin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Stade Tunisien win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.