Stade Olympique de Sousse · Analysis updated 07:06 UTC
ES Sahel vs ES Metlaoui Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for ES Sahel and 0.79 for ES Metlaoui, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives ES Sahel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ES Sahel win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ES Sahel home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
ES Metlaoui away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
ES Sahel
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Béja · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs CS Hammam-Lif · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Marsa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 2-1 (W)
ES Metlaoui
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Marsa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · ES Sahel 2-1 ES Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
- 2026-04-29T14:30:00.000Z · ES Sahel 0-2 ES Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-01T13:30:00.000Z · ES Sahel 2-0 ES Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-22T13:00:00.000Z · ES Sahel 2-1 ES Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
- 2024-10-26T13:30:00.000Z · ES Sahel 0-0 ES Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
- 2021-03-03T13:00:00.000Z · ES Sahel 1-1 Etoile S. Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
- 2020-12-12T13:00:00.000Z · ES Sahel 2-0 Etoile S. Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
- 2020-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · ES Sahel 2-2 Etoile S. Metlaoui (Cup)
- 2020-02-22T13:00:00.000Z · ES Sahel 5-1 Etoile S. Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
- 2019-12-21T13:00:00.000Z · ES Sahel 0-1 Etoile S. Metlaoui (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Monastir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Bizertin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ES Sahel win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.