Stade 8 Mai 1945 · Analysis updated 23:24 UTC
ES Setif vs Ben Aknoun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for ES Setif and 0.99 for Ben Aknoun, a combined total of 2.31. That distribution gives ES Setif the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ben Aknoun away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ES Setif to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for ES Setif and 0.99 for Ben Aknoun, a combined 2.31 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–09.9%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–08.6%
Recent form
ES Setif
Ben Aknoun
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khenchela · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs US Biskra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Setif · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympique Akbou · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs USM Alger · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MC Oran | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | JS Kabylie | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | MB Rouisset | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | USM Alger | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Olympique Akbou | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | JS El Biar | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Témouchent | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 9 | MC Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Ben Aknoun | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | CS Constantine | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Setif | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | ASO Chlef | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 15 | JS Saoura | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | US Biskra | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.