Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium · Analysis updated 09:07 UTC
ES Zarzis vs Diambars Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for ES Zarzis and 0.99 for Diambars, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives ES Zarzis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ES Zarzis win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ES Zarzis home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Diambars away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ES Zarzis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for ES Zarzis and 0.99 for Diambars, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
ES Zarzis
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Diambars · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Diambars · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Sfaxien · 1-2 (L)
Diambars
- 2026-10-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Essamaye · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Zarzis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-06-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Génération Foot · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-05-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs DSC · 2-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ES Zarzis win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.