ES Zarzis vs ES Metlaoui Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for ES Zarzis and 0.67 for ES Metlaoui, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives ES Zarzis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

ES Zarzis win

55.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 0.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ES Zarzis home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ES Metlaoui away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ES Zarzis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for ES Zarzis and 0.67 for ES Metlaoui, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

ES Zarzis win55%

Draw27%

ES Metlaoui win18%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.6%
2–012.5%
0–012.3%
1–111.7%
2–18.4%

Recent form

ES Zarzis

2026-10-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Réal Bamako · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Réal Bamako · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Africain · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Monastirienne · 1-2 (L)

ES Metlaoui

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs AS Marsa · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Hammam-Sousse · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	US Ben Guerdane	7	5	2	0	6	17
2	ES Tunis	5	4	0	1	3	12
3	US Monastirienne	6	3	3	0	3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	CA Bizertin	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	7	2	4	1	1	10
7	Club Africain	4	3	0	1	2	9
8	AS Marsa	7	2	3	2	2	9
9	CS Sfaxien	5	2	2	1	2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	5	2	1	2	1	7
11	ES Sahel	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	2	0	3	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	7	1	2	4	-3	5
14	Olympique Béja	7	0	3	4	-5	3
15	ES Metlaoui	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is ES Zarzis win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.