Blue Water Arena · Referee J. Nielsen · Analysis updated 17:04 UTC
Esbjerg vs Hobro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Esbjerg and 1.50 for Hobro, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Hobro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esbjerg home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hobro away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hobro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Esbjerg and 1.50 for Hobro, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.1%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Esbjerg
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Aalborg · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AB Copenhagen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs HIK · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HB Koge · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Fredericia · 0-1 (L)
Hobro
- 2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalborg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Esbjerg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AB Copenhagen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vendsyssel FF · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vendsyssel FF · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hvidovre | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Vejle | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Aarhus Fremad | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | Aalborg | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Hobro | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 7 | Vendsyssel FF | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | AB Copenhagen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Hillerød | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Kolding IF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | HB Koge | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Esbjerg | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.