· Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Esbjerg W vs Sundby W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Esbjerg W and 2.02 for Sundby W, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Sundby W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sundby W win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esbjerg W home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sundby W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sundby W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Esbjerg W and 2.02 for Sundby W, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–27.1%
- 0–17.0%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Esbjerg W
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Osterbro W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs B 93 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Thy ThistedQ W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs B 93 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Osterbro W · 1-4 (L)
Sundby W
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Naestved W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AaB W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Osterbro W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AaB W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Naestved W · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sundby W win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.