· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Esbjerg W vs Thy ThistedQ W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Esbjerg W and 2.18 for Thy ThistedQ W, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Thy ThistedQ W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.5% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esbjerg W home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thy ThistedQ W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thy ThistedQ W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 37% / 20% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Esbjerg W and 2.18 for Thy ThistedQ W, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.7%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
Esbjerg W
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs B 93 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Thy ThistedQ W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs B 93 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Osterbro W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:15:00.000Z · H vs AaB W · 2-4 (L)
Thy ThistedQ W
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Esbjerg W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Naestved W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs B 93 W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Osterbro W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AaB W · 6-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.