Estadio Rafael Bolanos · Referee J. Ugalde · Analysis updated 01:39 UTC
Escorpiones Belén vs Deportivo Saprissa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Escorpiones Belén and 1.85 for Deportivo Saprissa, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Deportivo Saprissa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Saprissa win
66.8% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Escorpiones Belén home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Saprissa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Saprissa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 12% / 21% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Escorpiones Belén and 1.85 for Deportivo Saprissa, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 0–214.4%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–38.9%
Recent form
Escorpiones Belén
- 2026-10-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Perez Zeledon · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Saprissa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Puntarenas FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Herediano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter San Carlos · 0-2 (L)
Deportivo Saprissa
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Cartagines · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Escorpiones Belén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Herediano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | San Carlos | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 6 | Puntarenas FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 7 | Inter San Carlos | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 18 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Escorpiones Belén | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 10 |
| 10 | Perez Zeledon | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Saprissa win, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.