Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium · Referee M. Turkmen · Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Esenler Erokspor vs Çorum FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.49 for Çorum FK, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Çorum FK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esenler Erokspor home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Çorum FK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Çorum FK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.49 for Çorum FK, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Esenler Erokspor
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursaspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayserispor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodrum FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)
Çorum FK
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaziantep FK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alanyaspor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Samsunspor · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | Keçiörengücü | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Batman Petrolspor | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 6 | Mardin 1969 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Antalyaspor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Sarıyer | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 9 | Bandırmaspor | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 10 | Fatih Karagümrük | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 11 | Sivasspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Muğlaspor | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 13 | Bodrum FK | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Pendikspor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Manisa F.K. | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Esenler Erokspor | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Ümraniyespor | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.