Esenler Erokspor vs Kayserispor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.45 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.08 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 1.53. That distribution gives Kayserispor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kayserispor win

51.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.45 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Esenler Erokspor home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kayserispor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kayserispor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 15% / 34% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.45 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.08 for Kayserispor, a combined 1.53 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Esenler Erokspor win15%

Draw34%

Kayserispor win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals45%

Over 2.5 goals20%

Over 3.5 goals7%

Both teams to score24%

Correct score

0–123.4%
0–021.8%
0–212.6%
1–110.5%
1–09.8%

Recent form

Esenler Erokspor

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursaspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayserispor · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodrum FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)

Kayserispor

2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mardin 1969 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs İstanbulspor · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Esenler Erokspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bursaspor · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bursaspor	12	9	1	2	15	28
2	Kayserispor	12	8	3	1	17	27
3	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
4	Batman Petrolspor	12	7	2	3	4	23
5	Keçiörengücü	12	5	5	2	8	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	12	6	0	6	-1	18
9	Bodrum FK	12	4	5	3	4	17
10	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
11	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	12	2	6	4	-4	12
16	Pendikspor	12	2	5	5	-9	11
17	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
18	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kayserispor win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.