Esenler Erokspor vs Keçiörengücü Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.46 for Keçiörengücü, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Keçiörengücü the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Keçiörengücü win

48.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.96 – 1.46

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Esenler Erokspor home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Keçiörengücü away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Keçiörengücü to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 25% / 27% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.46 for Keçiörengücü, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Esenler Erokspor win25%

Draw27%

Keçiörengücü win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

0–112.9%
1–112.5%
0–29.4%
1–29.1%
0–08.9%

Recent form

Esenler Erokspor

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursaspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayserispor · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodrum FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)

Keçiörengücü

2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodrum FK · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sivasspor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanspor FK · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarıyer · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Keçiörengücü win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.