Esenler Stadium · Referee Burak Kamalak · Analysis updated 13:26 UTC
Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.09 for Mardin 1969, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Mardin 1969 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Esenler Erokspor home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mardin 1969 away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mardin 1969 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 30% / 31% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.09 for Mardin 1969, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
Esenler Erokspor
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursaspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayserispor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodrum FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)
Mardin 1969
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Eyüpspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muş Sport Klübü · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Iğdır FK | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 26 |
| 3 | Bursaspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 4 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Batman Petrolspor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Muğlaspor | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 9 | Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Sarıyer | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 16 |
| 11 | Bandırmaspor | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 12 | Bodrum FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 14 | Sivasspor | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Esenler Erokspor | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Vanspor FK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 18 | Pendikspor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -22 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -22 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.