Esenler Erokspor vs Sarıyer Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.03 for Sarıyer, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Esenler Erokspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Esenler Erokspor home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarıyer away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Esenler Erokspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 29% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.03 for Sarıyer, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Esenler Erokspor win40%

Draw29%

Sarıyer win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–113.3%
1–012.9%
0–110.9%
0–010.6%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Esenler Erokspor

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fatih Karagümrük · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bursaspor · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kayserispor · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodrum FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)

Sarıyer

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sivasspor · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodrum FK · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ümraniyespor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boluspor · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandırmaspor · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kayserispor	11	8	2	1	17	26
2	Iğdır FK	12	8	2	2	8	26
3	Bursaspor	11	8	1	2	13	25
4	Keçiörengücü	11	5	5	1	10	20
5	Batman Petrolspor	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Muğlaspor	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Mardin 1969	11	5	3	3	4	18
8	Antalyaspor	11	6	0	5	0	18
9	Fatih Karagümrük	12	4	4	4	1	16
10	Sarıyer	12	4	4	4	-3	16
11	Bandırmaspor	12	3	5	4	7	14
12	Bodrum FK	11	3	5	3	3	14
13	Ümraniyespor	11	3	4	4	3	13
14	Sivasspor	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Esenler Erokspor	11	2	6	3	-3	12
16	Manisa F.K.	11	2	4	5	-2	10
17	Vanspor FK	12	3	3	6	-9	10
18	Pendikspor	11	2	4	5	-9	10
19	İstanbulspor	12	1	2	9	-22	5
20	Boluspor	11	0	1	10	-22	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.