· Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Eskhata vs Barki Tajik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Eskhata and 1.80 for Barki Tajik, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Barki Tajik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eskhata home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barki Tajik away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Barki Tajik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Eskhata and 1.80 for Barki Tajik, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Eskhata
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Istaravshan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Pomir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barki Tajik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 2-4 (L)
Barki Tajik
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istaravshan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khatlon · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.