· Analysis updated 20:20 UTC
Eskhata vs Khosilot Farkhor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Eskhata and 1.23 for Khosilot Farkhor, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Eskhata the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eskhata home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Khosilot Farkhor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Eskhata
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Istaravshan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Pomir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barki Tajik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 2-4 (L)
Khosilot Farkhor
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-13T14:00:00.000Z · Eskhata 1-6 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2025-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · Eskhata 0-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2025-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Eskhata 2-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2024-08-17T12:00:00.000Z · Eskhata 3-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2024-04-19T11:30:00.000Z · Eskhata 2-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2023-05-27T12:30:00.000Z · Eskhata 2-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
- 2023-04-29T12:00:00.000Z · Eskhata 0-1 Khosilot Farkhor (Vysshaya Liga)
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.