· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Eskhata vs Regar-TadAZ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Eskhata and 1.48 for Regar-TadAZ, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Regar-TadAZ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Regar-TadAZ win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eskhata home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Regar-TadAZ away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Regar-TadAZ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 23% / 26% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Eskhata and 1.48 for Regar-TadAZ, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–210.1%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–29.1%
Recent form
Eskhata
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Istaravshan · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Pomir · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Barki Tajik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 2-4 (L)
Regar-TadAZ
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Khosilot Farkhor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Maziya · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istiqlol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravshan · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 2 | Regar-TadAZ | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Barki Tajik | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 24 |
| 5 | CSKA Pomir | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 24 |
| 6 | Khujand | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | Ravshan | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Khatlon | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -17 | 15 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 17 | 0 | 6 | 11 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Regar-TadAZ win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.