Eskilsminne vs AFC Malmo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Eskilsminne and 2.08 for AFC Malmo, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives AFC Malmo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AFC Malmo win

46.6% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 2.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Eskilsminne home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Malmo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AFC Malmo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 21% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Eskilsminne and 2.08 for AFC Malmo, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Eskilsminne win32%

Draw21%

AFC Malmo win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.3%
1–18.0%
2–27.2%
2–16.9%
1–35.8%

Recent form

Eskilsminne

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lund · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skövde AIK · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic · 2-7 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jonkopings Sodra · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Malmo · 1-2 (L)

AFC Malmo

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jonkopings Sodra · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skövde AIK · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristianstad · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Eskilsminne · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Utsikten · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Södra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trelleborg	27	18	6	3	31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	28	16	4	8	18	52
3	Lund	28	13	8	7	19	47
4	Atvidabergs FF	27	13	8	6	13	47
5	AFC Malmo	28	12	8	8	10	44
6	Rosengård	28	10	10	8	3	40
7	Jonkopings Sodra	28	11	6	11	5	39
8	Trollhättan	28	10	8	10	0	38
9	Tvååker	28	10	8	10	-3	38
10	Olympic	28	11	3	14	-3	36
11	Skövde AIK	28	8	11	9	-9	35
12	Kristianstad	28	9	6	13	-7	33
13	Eskilsminne	28	9	6	13	-12	33
14	Laholm	28	9	5	14	-6	32
15	Angelholms FF	28	6	9	13	-14	27
16	Utsikten	28	2	6	20	-45	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AFC Malmo win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.