· Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Eskilsminne vs Orgryte IS Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Eskilsminne and 1.60 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.46. That distribution gives Eskilsminne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Eskilsminne home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Orgryte IS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Eskilsminne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 22% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Eskilsminne and 1.60 for Orgryte IS, a combined 3.46 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Eskilsminne
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jonkopings Sodra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Malmo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Angelholms FF · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tvååker · 4-2 (W)
Orgryte IS
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sirius · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hammarby FF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eskilsminne · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.