· Analysis updated 08:43 UTC
ESMAC vs Vénus Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for ESMAC and 2.52 for Vénus, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Vénus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vénus win
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ESMAC home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Vénus away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vénus to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 19% / 18% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for ESMAC and 2.52 for Vénus, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–17.1%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–26.0%
Recent form
ESMAC
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Vénus · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Pedreira · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vénus · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-06-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Uniao Paraense · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-06-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Amazônia PA · 1-2 (L)
Vénus
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Pinheirense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Pedreira · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs ESMAC · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pedreira · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ESMAC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paraense A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavião | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Sport Belem | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Pedreira | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Belenense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Vénus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Pinheirense | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Tesla | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Parauapebas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Paraense SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 10 | Altamira | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | ESMAC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 1 |
| 12 | CA Vila Rica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vénus win, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.