ESMTK vs Dabas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for ESMTK and 1.73 for Dabas, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives ESMTK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

ESMTK home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dabas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

ESMTK win45%

Draw21%

Dabas win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.3%
2–18.3%
1–27.2%
2–27.2%
3–15.5%

Recent form

ESMTK

2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sándorfalva · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Algyő SK · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs BKV Előre · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Csepel · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hódmezővásárhely · 2-2 (D)

Dabas

2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Csepel · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ESMTK · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs III. Kerületi TUE · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cigand SE · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyulai Termál · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · ESMTK 2-1 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
2025-08-10T15:30:00.000Z · ESMTK 0-1 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
2025-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · ESMTK 3-0 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
2024-09-29T14:00:00.000Z · ESMTK 1-0 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
2024-08-04T14:30:00.000Z · ESMTK 2-0 Dabas (Magyar Kupa)
2024-04-07T14:00:00.000Z · ESMTK 3-0 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
2023-09-24T14:00:00.000Z · ESMTK 6-0 Dabas (NB III - Southeast)
2023-04-30T15:00:00.000Z · ESMTK 6-1 Dabas (NB III - Northwest)
2022-11-06T12:00:00.000Z · ESMTK 1-2 Dabas (NB III - Northwest)
2022-04-13T14:00:00.000Z · ESMTK 1-1 Dabas (NB III - Northwest)

NB III - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gyulai Termál	11	11	0	0	30	33
2	III. Kerületi TUE	11	8	1	2	11	25
3	ESMTK	11	7	3	1	20	24
4	Újpest II	11	5	3	3	10	18
5	Vasas II	11	5	2	4	11	17
6	Szeged-Csanád II	11	4	5	2	5	17
7	Csepel	11	3	5	3	4	14
8	Monori Se	11	3	5	3	2	14
9	Szolnoki MAV FC	11	3	5	3	-1	14
10	Dabas	11	4	2	5	-11	14
11	Bekescsaba 1912	11	3	4	4	1	13
12	Honvéd II	11	3	2	6	0	11
13	Sándorfalva	11	3	1	7	-20	10
14	Hódmezővásárhely	11	1	5	5	-11	8
15	BKV Előre	11	1	2	8	-29	5
16	Szegedi VSE	11	0	3	8	-22	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.