· Analysis updated 13:37 UTC
ESMTK vs Honvéd II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for ESMTK and 1.08 for Honvéd II, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives ESMTK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
ESMTK win
59.8% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
ESMTK home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Honvéd II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ESMTK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for ESMTK and 1.08 for Honvéd II, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–09.0%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
ESMTK
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Sándorfalva · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Algyő SK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs BKV Előre · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Csepel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Hódmezővásárhely · 2-2 (D)
Honvéd II
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyulai Termál · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Újpest II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Monori Se · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szegedi VSE · 8-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Southeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 36 |
| 2 | ESMTK | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 27 |
| 3 | III. Kerületi TUE | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Szeged-Csanád II | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Újpest II | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 7 | Csepel | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Monori Se | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Dabas | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 14 |
| 12 | Honvéd II | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Sándorfalva | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -22 | 10 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 | BKV Előre | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -28 | 8 |
| 16 | Szegedi VSE | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -21 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is ESMTK win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.